I Survived Real Estate 2008 – Part 3
Video clip three of “I Survived Real Estate 2008″ starts with Bruce Norris introducing Christopher Thornberg who represents the economics part of the equation. Christopher is a self proclaimed bear and was one of the few that predicted the downturn was coming. Christopher discusses employment, housing starts and how they can only go to zero, consumer sales, exports, his thought on recession and the varying views that exist, if the worst is yet to come, and where he stands.
Christopher talks about the housing market and the false indicator of increases in home sales. Christopher says homes prices got too ridiculous and that prices did not match what people were making. Increases in incomes did not keep up with home price appreciation. The only reason prices got that high was of the crazy financing that took place.
Christopher says the pace of home price declines look to be around 30% per year and the mix of foreclosures to home sales is not looking good. Christopher addresses how far prices will fall.
Christopher believes financial losses will total over $1 trillion and that several institutions will fail because of overexposure. The leverage of some institutions is 100 to 1 such as Fannie Mae and Freddie Mac.
Christopher reviews some of the new features of the newly passed housing bill and how little it will actually accomplish. With the money that the government will release to California alone, doing the math it means California will only be able to purchase around 4,000 homes which is a very small piece of the large REO pie.
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